Zerohedge

Buying The Median US Home Now Takes A $112,700 Salary... And $492,000 In San Jose Buying the national median-priced home ($434,900, per HSH.com's second-quarter 2026 data) takes an income of $112,695 a year with 20% down ($347,920 borrowed) at a 6.41% mortgage rate. That is $9,213 more than in the first quarter, and HSH says affordability worsened in all 50 of the large metros it tracks over the quarter. It is still $1,273 below the second-quarter 2025 figure.San Jose tops the ranking at $492,364 a year, nearly seven times Pittsburgh's $71,567. San Francisco ($367,973), San Diego ($256,735) and Los Angeles ($215,136) follow, and New York City, Boston and Seattle also need more than $200,000. A six-figure income is required in 32 of the 50 metros.The strain is already visible in transactions. Pending home sales fell to record lows in September, and existing home sales are hovering near record lows as the affordability gap widens. Click for full size As Visual Capitalist explains further,In coastal California, much of what buyers pay for is the land itself. Land accounted for 59% to 68% of a single-family home's value in the San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego metros in 2022, compared with 40% nationally and 22% in Pittsburgh, according to FHFA estimates.In Most Metros, Typical Households Earn Too Little to BuyNationally, buyers needed $112.7K a year, about 29% more than the 2025 U.S. median household income of $87.5K, according to the Census Bureau.The gap between home prices and household incomes is especially striking in San Jose. Although the typical household earns roughly twice the national median, the median home costs nearly five times as much as the national median. As a result, the typical local household earns only about one-third of the income needed to buy a median-priced home.At the other end of the ranking, these five metros require the lowest salaries:Pittsburgh: $71.6KCleveland: $71.9KOklahoma City: $73.7KLouisville: $75.8KMemphis: $78.3KBased on 2024 Census data, the latest available by metro area, median household incomes in Oklahoma City and Louisville fell short of the required salaries by less than 2%.Homebuying Got Easier in the South and WestCompared with Q2 2025, the income needed fell in 30 of the 50 metros as the average 30-year mortgage rate dropped from 6.79% to 6.41%.However, the required income rose in 13 of the 17 Midwest and Northeast metros, led by St. Louis (+3.8%), Hartford (+3.6%), and Providence (+3.3%). Even Pittsburgh and Cleveland, the two cheapest markets, became less affordable.New construction helps explain the regional divide. The South and West accounted for 79% of single-family housing starts in 2025, despite holding about 63% of the U.S. population, according to Census Bureau data. All 10 metros where home prices fell were also in those two regions.The table below shows how the income needed and median home prices changed in each metro from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026:Metro AreaStateRegionChange, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 (%): Income Needed to Buy a HomeChange, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 (%): Median Home PriceSt. LouisMOMidwest3.766.22HartfordCTNortheast3.567.97ProvidenceRINortheast3.287.43PittsburghPANortheast2.956.78MilwaukeeWIMidwest2.936.85New York CityNYNortheast2.536.03JacksonvilleFLSouth2.455.43DetroitMIMidwest2.456.09ClevelandOHMidwest2.446.20Kansas CityMOMidwest2.374.45CincinnatiOHMidwest2.185.53ChicagoILMidwest2.055.74San FranciscoCAWest1.735.19San DiegoCAWest1.214.88Virginia BeachVASouth0.913.98BuffaloNYNortheast0.753.45RichmondVASouth0.633.79New OrleansLASouth0.462.15ColumbusOHMidwest0.183.21TampaFLSouth0.162.47BaltimoreMDSouth-0.023.01MemphisTNSouth-0.033.00IndianapolisINMidwest-0.392.20BirminghamALSouth-0.412.95PhiladelphiaPANortheast-0.463.73MiamiFLSouth-0.612.01LouisvilleKYSouth-1.061.95SacramentoCAWest-1.081.82CharlotteNCSouth-1.120.56AtlantaGASouth-1.430.91Salt Lake CityUTWest-1.442.24BostonMANortheast-1.681.28San AntonioTXSouth-1.80-0.31Oklahoma CityOKSouth-1.940.15WashingtonDCSouth-1.980.92OrlandoFLSouth-2.040.04DenverCOWest-2.270.16RaleighNCSouth-2.32-0.83MinneapolisMNMidwest-2.350.53PhoenixAZWest-2.570.65HoustonTXSouth-2.60-1.20DallasTXSouth-2.76-0.68Las VegasNVWest-2.850.25AustinTXSouth-2.89-1.30Los AngelesCAWest-2.900.00PortlandORWest-3.38-0.60Riverside/San BernardinoCAWest-3.51-0.82NashvilleTNSouth-4.17-1.41SeattleWAWest-4.89-2.28San JoseCAWest-6.67-4.16Rising mortgage rates have since erased much of that relief. Freddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.40% in October 2026, its highest level since November 2023 and nearly a full percentage point above the Q2 average.At that rate, buying the national median-priced home would require an annual income of approximately $122.6K, nearly $10K more than the Q2 figure. This illustrates how quickly borrowing costs can change affordability, even without a corresponding increase in home prices. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 11:45

Trump To Cut Off $4B Annual Israel Aid By Year-End, Jokes He'd Move There To Become PM 'If People Got Tired Of Me' President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the United States will end its nearly $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel by the end of the year, saying he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the cutoff months ago. Trump argued Israel no longer needs the assistance and that the annual payment had become an easy political target for critics on the left. US President Donald Trump points his finger towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference after meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, US, December 29, 2025 (photo credit: REUTERS/JONATHAN ERNST) "Bibi Netanyahu and I have made a deal," Trump said. "We give Israel $4 billion a year, and we made a deal months ago that we're stopping - and they're fine with it."Arguing that the longtime U.S. ally has outgrown the need for direct taxpayer subsidies, Trump added: "They've become a very successful country. They don't need it. And we won't be paying anymore."BREAKING: President Trump says the U.S. will end roughly $4 billion in annual aid to Israel by the end of the year, revealing that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the decision.“Because they don’t need it,” Trump said during an exclusive interview on @foxandfriends,… pic.twitter.com/ItBUcMrtuZ— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 3, 2026 Trump even joked about a backup political career in Jerusalem if American voters ever grew tired of him:Trump: "If people ever got tired of me in the US, I'll move to Israel and become prime minister" pic.twitter.com/AfVG7YYoVe— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2026 From Aid to Cash-Only Weapons SalesWhile the proposed cutoff would halt direct financial grants, it would not restrict Israel's access to the American defense industry. "They can buy whatever they want," Trump said, while noting that Washington would still step in with emergency aid if Israel genuinely needed it.Under a 10-year memorandum of understanding negotiated by the Obama administration and appropriated annually by Congress, the U.S. currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion a year in military assistance through 2028.However, Trump's abrupt year-end deadline accelerates the timetable far beyond what Israeli leadership previously envisioned. In May, Netanyahu told CBS that he wanted to phase out U.S. financial support gradually over the next decade:"It's time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support, and go from aid to partnership."Of note, in May Netanyahu floated the idea of weaning Israel off US military support 'within a decade,' telling 60 Minutes "I want to draw down to zero the American financial support, the financial component of the military cooperation that we have."In July, the GOP-led House defeated a Democrat bid to end Israel aid. Defusing an Election-Day TargetAccording to Trump, it was Netanyahu himself who suggested the shift - a move Trump explicitly framed as a way to neutralize domestic criticism of U.S. foreign aid as voters head to the polls for the midterms."The left uses the $4 billion payment - that everybody knows about, it's no secret - as a signal of unfairness, and we can't allow that to happen," Trump said. "I don't like that, because, you know, it's too easy. It's almost too easy a target."Polling throughout the year shows measurable erosion in support for Israel among conservatives, particularly younger ones, even as the core MAGA base remains relatively firm. A May 2026 Pew Research analysis found that only 43 percent of Republicans aged 18–34 view the Israeli people favorably, compared with 79 percent of those 50 and older; a majority of Republicans under 50 now hold unfavorable views of Israel overall. Chicago Council on Global Affairs data from 2026 recorded a drop in Republican thermometer ratings of Israel (from 69 in 2022 to 62), with MAGA Republicans still more positive (67) than non-MAGA Republicans (55), and younger Republicans rating the country substantially lower than older cohorts. On aid, an Economist/YouGov poll showed 69 percent of MAGA supporters still favor maintaining or increasing U.S. military assistance to Israel (with only 8 percent wanting it stopped entirely), while other surveys have found majorities of younger Republicans open to reducing or ending weapons transfers. Support for the Iran war is more resilient within the Republican coalition: a July 2026 Chicago Council survey found 63 percent of Republicans (and 77 percent of MAGA Republicans) saying the war has been worth the costs, in contrast to large majorities of Democrats and independents who say it has not. These figures indicate a clear generational and intra-party softening on Israel itself, with more limited but real divisions on the broader Iran conflict.Of note, scrutiny over Washington's blank-check support has intensified across the political spectrum since Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. In battleground Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has campaigned heavily on redirecting that money to domestic priorities. Skepticism has also gained traction among populist Republicans, though the House rejected a largely symbolic measure in July that would have blocked all military aid to Israel.The announcement arrives at a volatile moment in the region. The war against Iran - launched jointly by the U.S. and Israel in late February (technically the US did it at Israel's request) - is now entering its ninth month, driving up global energy prices and compounding the cost-of-living pressures dominating the midterm elections.While Washington and Tehran have stepped up backchannel diplomacy in recent days to avert another round of all-out war, friction remains behind the scenes: Bloomberg, citing reporting from Axios, noted that Netanyahu has been pressuring Trump to resume strikes on Iran as soon as the elections are over. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 11:15

Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar By Over 330K, Amid Near-Record Surge In Americans Quitting After three straight months of disappointing JOLTS reports, moments ago the BLS reported that in September the number of job openings soared by 333K from an upward revised 7.190 million (vs 7.079 million pre-revision) to 7.523 million...... beating estimates of 7.164 million handily, the first time the job openings print hasn't disappointed since May.This was also the second upward revision to the data after three months of retroactive disappointments. Of course, nobody can possibly forget the three straight years of negative revisions between 2023 and 2025...  Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.5 million and 4.5%, respectively. Job openings increased in state and local government, excluding education (+104,000). There were also material increases in Professional and Business Services jobs, in Information, in Trade and Transportation, and in Construction and manufacturing; these were offset by modest declines in Private Education & Health, in Financial Activities, and Leisure and Hospitality.Following up on last month's huge drop in real estate, rental and leasing job openings, in September there was a sizable rebound, with the number of job openings rising from a 12 year low of 52K to 75K.The September surge in job openings was juxtaposed with relatively flat employment during the month, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, and after 5 months of modest improvements in the number of excess job openings, we just had the month with the biggest imbalance between job openings and unemployed workers, as the September surplus surged to 414K from 159K the month before, a welcome development for the broader labor market which in September saw a huge air pocket with just 29K new jobs added. The latest JOLTS data also means that after dropping to 1.0x in August, the ratio of job openings to unemployed is once again on the way up, rising to 1.1x.While the job openings number was far stronger than expected, in September we also saw a s burst of strength in both hiring and quits. The number of hires in Sept rose by 131K, from 5.271MM to 5.402MM, resulting in the second highest total hires print since 2024 (only March was higher at 5.535MM). Meanwhile, the number of people who quit their job exploded from 3.044 million to 3.365 million...... soaring by a near record 10.5%, one of the highest outside of the covid chaos. The surge in quits indicated a jump in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere, which the spike in job openings reaffirms. It goes without saying that strong job openings print, while quits surge and hires rise, leads one to assume that the Friday job report will be much stronger than the 65K median estimate.In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this put a question mark to the September payrolls report which rose by a tiny 29K (at a time when the hires less separations print was 83K). And since the JOLTS implied number is far stronger than that, having printed negative for a third month in a row, we expect the August payrolls report this Friday to be yet another catch down, and will likely be much higher than the 29K increase reported last month, and also higher than the 65K expected print. Overall, this was a stellar JOLTS report, with strength in both openings, hires and quits, and shows that after some modest weakness in the middle part of of 2026, US labor market is now once again recovering solidly, which could translate into another big beat in this Friday jobs report. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 10:45

US Factory Orders Are Surging At Their Fastest Pace In Over 4 Years Following mixed manufacturing survey data, expectations were for a sizable jump in US Factory Orders in September.The actual print was even better than expected, rising 1.9% MoM (+1.8% MoM exp). That was the third consecutive monthly gain and followed a 0.3% increase in August and lifted orders up over 10% YoY...Core Factory Orders were even more dramatic, up 1.3% MoM (almost triple the 0.5% MoM expected).That is the strongest annual growth in core factory orders since July 2022Transportation equipment (+4.6%) was the biggest durable-goods boost, led by a +28.3% surge in non-defense aircraft and parts (the usual volatile swing).This full report includes non-durable goods and confirms the earlier advance durable-goods reading (also +1.8%, led by transportation equipment) signaling that demand looks reasonably healthy across both durable and nondurable goods and fits the ongoing manufacturing expansion seen in the ISM data. The aircraft spike juiced the headline, but the underlying gain (ex-transportation) and the matching strength in nondurables suggest the improvement is more than just a one-off. This is consistent with firm capital-goods/equipment spending trends that should support growth. Overall, the data points to solid factory demand continuing into the fall. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 10:05

Shopify Crashes On First Revenue Miss In Four Years, Wells Fargo Warns AI Costs Hitting Margins Shopify shares crashed in premarket trading in New York after the first sales miss since 2022. Investors focused on subscription revenue that fell short of the Bloomberg Consensus estimate, and Wells Fargo analysts pointed to gross margin headwinds due to AI. Third quarter revenue rose 32% to $3.74 billion, falling just short of the consensus estimate of $3.75 billion. Subscription Solutions revenue missed, while Merchant Solutions, its largest business, was roughly in line. Gross merchandise volume also missed estimates.Here's a snapshot of 3Q earnings:Revenue $3.74 billion, estimate $3.75 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)Monthly recurring revenue $230 million, estimate $229.9 millionMerchant Solutions revenue $2.91 billion, estimate $2.9 billionSubscription revenue $836 million, estimate $850.2 millionAdjusted EPS 49c, estimate 48cOperating income $568 million, estimate $523.9 millionTotal operating expenses $1.21 billion, estimate $1.26 billionGross merchandise volume $119.15 billion, estimate $120.08 billionThe subscription revenue miss raises questions about Shopify's ability to generate additional revenue from merchants.Shopify expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow at a low-30s percentage rate from one year ago, with gross profit dollars rising at a high-20s pace. Operating expenses are projected at 29% to 30% of revenue, while the free cash flow margin is expected to remain consistent with 4Q25. Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski: "Gross margin headwinds worsening; see Sidekick/AI inference as likely cause." Gawrelski highlights year-over-year changes in revenue from Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions units. Shopify shares fell as much as 20% in New York premarket trading as investors hoped for stronger earnings results. Around 8:30 a.m. EST, shares were down 15%."We believe the ~15% premarket selloff largely reflects heightened investor expectations heading into the quarter," Truist analyst Terry Tillman wrote in a note.  Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 09:45

"Mach Tuck"? Investigators Say Learjet 60 May Have Broken Apart Before Florida Crash The Learjet 60 that crashed on Sunday afternoon in Palm Beach County, Florida, killing all nine people aboard, may have broken apart before slamming into the ground.The Learjet 60 (N722BD) was flying from Austin, Texas, to North Eleuthera Airport in the Bahamas (with passengers likely visiting Harbor Island) when it encountered severe thunderstorms and turbulence. ‼️DEVELOPING: RADAR SHOWS JET FLEW INTO A STORM CORE AT 35,000 FEETAnalysis of Miami NEXRAD radar shows the Learjet 60 (N722BD) entered a thunderstorm core near Wellington at about 12:48 PM ET, just before it crashed in Palm Beach County.At 35,000 feet, radar echoes around… pic.twitter.com/Tt83Gpcck5— Live Storm Chasers (@LiveStormChaser) November 1, 2026 The young woman copilot reported icing at 35,000 feet, followed shortly by overspeed conditions and an accelerating descent rate of between 10,000 and 22,000 feet per minute."The weather conditions are a major focus of the investigation," NTSB board member Tom Chapman said, quoted by Reuters. Investigators have found evidence suggesting an in-flight breakup and may locate aircraft parts some distance from the main impact area, he added.The Learjet's maximum operating limits, VMO and MMO, change with altitude. At the altitude the jet was flying before the crash, the operating limit was around Mach 0.81:There are concerns that icing and moderate turbulence led to a phenomenon called "Mach tuck," in which a jet's nose pitches downward at high speeds as airflow over parts of the wing becomes supersonic and shock waves form. (excuse the tiktok video), apparently it *could have* also been something called “mach tuck”. Commercial aircraft have been built structurally to prevent this. But it seems Learjet & also older planes CAN be susceptible. https://t.co/YrG4OPtSsA pic.twitter.com/6wyUl3hoQ5— 𝒥𝚊𝚗𝑒 𝒟𝚘𝑒 (@femanthropy) November 2, 2026 If so, it may explain why the pilot lacked sufficient elevator control due to an in-flight breakup as the aircraft exceeded its maximum operating speed. WATCH: New video shows Learjet 60 business jet crashing near West Palm Beach, Florida.The plane was completely disintegrated upon impact. Number of casualties unknown. pic.twitter.com/l5JT9KEWnQ— BNO News (@BNONews) November 1, 2026 Unconfirmed reports on X say the Instagram account "divisionofaero" found a flight control surface several miles from the crash site, which would indicate overspeed conditions and the resulting breakup of part of the aircraft.From Instagram account “divisionofaero” — Someone found a flight control surface several miles from the crash site. I've emailed these screenshots to the NTSB. This would indicate the aircraft was breaking up prior to impact. pic.twitter.com/fJj633ndpZ— RampCheck Aviation (@rampcheck) November 3, 2026 NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman praised the 20-year-old female copilot for continuing to communicate with ATC during the emergency."She was doing her job," Isaacman wrote on X.ATC AUDIO: Final moments of the Learjet 60 crew before the aircraft crashed in West Palm Beach, Florida, killing all 9 people on board. pic.twitter.com/eYFJUiNsU7— WBC24 (@WBC24News) November 1, 2026 The ATC audio of the young copilot communicating with controllers in the area is one of the worst recordings some commercial pilots say they have ever heard. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 09:15

Trump Unloads On El-Sayed And Alaska's 'Decoy Dan' In Election-Day Truth Social Posts President Trump took to Truth Social overnight to attack Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the second Dan Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, hours before polls opened in two Senate races that could decide control of the chamber.At 12:52 a.m. Eastern, Trump wrote, "Abdul El-Sayed Hates Jews and Hates Blacks. Don't feel bad, he also Hates Whites." The post goes on: "Only fools would vote for him in the Michigan race for the U.S. Senate! He will, 100%, do you in! VOTE FOR MIKE ROGERS."Right now Rogers is trailing, if one is to believe the polls: a Glengariff Group poll for WDIV and The Detroit News, taken Oct. 19 to 22 among 600 likely voters, had El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 51.4% to 45.1%, with a margin of error of 4 points. Two days before the vote, Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the August primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers, and her congressional staff has reportedly quit.Twenty minutes later, at 1:12 a.m., Trump turned to Alaska, in all caps: "FAKE ALASKA CANDIDATE DANIAL J. SULLIVAN, JR., IS MISSING IN ACTION! HE HAS TOTALLY DISAPPEARED, GONE! NOBODY HAS BEEN ABLE TO FIND HIM." He continued: "MAYBE HE HAS BEEN "KIDNAPPED" BY THE CORRUPT DUMOCRAT LAWYERS??? THEY ARE SCARED STIFF OF BEING PROSECUTED FOR ELECTION FRAUD!!!"Daniel J. Sullivan is a retired Petersburg schoolteacher running as an independent against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. After taking 2.5% of the vote in the primary, Republicans nicknamed him "Decoy Dan." CBS News reported Friday that he had left his hometown, and a resident and former student saw him on a flight to Anchorage on Monday. The SetupThe New York Times reported Oct. 28 that operatives around Mary Peltola's Democratic campaign spent months looking for a second Dan Sullivan to put on the ballot, and the Peltola campaign denies recruiting anyone. Alaska's governor has ordered a criminal investigation into the Peltola campaign.On Sunday a federal judge threw out the Justice Department's lawsuit seeking to stop Alaska from certifying its Senate race if the incumbent loses, ruling the government lacked standing, as we reported. Trump's "election fraud" line in the post is the latest turn in that fight. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 08:45

Futures Mixed As America Votes, Apple Slides And Oil Rebounds After "Defensive" US Strike On Iran US futures are down but off session lows, with Nasdaq contracts edging higher, as America heads to the polls for the midterms, chips rebound even as Apple slides on a gross margin warning and Palantir tumbles on a soft outlook, and oil bounces off Monday's 8% plunge after the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island in what officials called a "small-scale" and "defensive" attack; as a result the oil-driven bond rally takes a breather with the 10Y yield edging up to 4.93%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% at 7,564 while Nasdaq futures are up 0.3% and Dow futures are down 0.6% some 300 points to 51,826. On Monday the S&P reversed a 1% gain to close down 0.5% at 7,541 and the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4% into a correction, 10% below its October 6 peak, even as the equal-weight S&P rose 0.7% and the Dow added 0.4%. In premarket trading, semis and memory names are bid again while software lags, with Shopify plunging 19% and Dynatrace 15%; Apple drops about 4%, after the stock initially traded flat in the immediate aftermath of the report as we noted last night, while Nvidia rises 1.5% (Apple closed Monday as the world's most valuable company, only narrowly ahead of Nvidia, so that title is in play). The day's driver is the vote (with Iran in the background, again): Polymarket assigns a 94% chance of a Dem House and a 78% chance of a Dem Senate, an outcome which markets fear means more AI regulation and more hurdles for the data center buildout, with the Texas governor race seen as the one to watch for the AI trade; meanwhile US-Iran headlines swing between mediator proposals and Tehran declaring it is "now in a state of war" after the Qeshm strike. Treasuries are broadly flat and outperform European bonds, which slide as oil and Dutch gas rebound and ECB speakers sound hawkish. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, the Aussie lags after the RBA's split 6-3 hike was read as dovish, and the onshore yuan snapped its longest winning streak in three decades after the PBOC raised FX reserve requirements. In commodities, WTI rises 2% to about $98.45 and Brent trades above $105, gold drops 0.9% and silver slides below $50, while copper slips under $14,000; Bitcoin dipped to $76,240 before rebounding above $77,000. US economic data slate includes September JOLTS job openings, factory orders and final durable goods (all at 10am); there are no scheduled Fed speakers, and the Treasury sells $100 billion of 6-week bills at 11:30am. Polls start closing at 6pm ET.In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Apple (AAPL) -4%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.09%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +1.5%Apple (AAPL) drops about 4% after delivering a mixed outlook to investors in its first quarterly report under Chief Executive Officer John Ternus, with tightening profit margins overshadowing an upbeat sales forecast.Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) jumps 13% after the semiconductor testing equipment maker raised its full-year revenue outlook to the top end of its previous guidance range, above the Wall Street consensus.Bloom Energy (BE) gains 6% after California Resources Corp. announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the fuel cell company to advance decarbonized power across California.Clorox (CLX) rises 2% after reporting adjusted earnings and revenue that topped estimates for its fiscal first quarter.CVR Energy (CVI), a refiner controlled by billionaire investor Carl Icahn, about 1% after agreeing to buy two oil-processing plants and a marketing platform from Marathon Petroleum for about $4.2 billion.Dynatrace (DT) sinks 12% after the software company gave an adjusted profit forecast for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.Ethos Technologies (LIFE) gains 10% after the insurance platform said third quarter revenue grew 151% from the year-ago period.Harmonic (HLIT) gains 16% after the communications equipment company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is well above the analyst consensus.Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) gains 10% after providing a  better-than-expected forecast for 4Q revenue, lifting shares by 9.0%.ON Semiconductor (ON) rises 2% after the chipmaker’s fourth-quarter sales forecast largely beat expectations and it agreed to acquire Ferric for $600 million in cash.Palantir (PLTR) falls 7% after issuing a quarterly outlook that pointed to a potential slowdown in sales growth, with revenue expected to be roughly $2.65 billion in the three months ended Dec. 31.Revvity (RVTY) jumps 7% after the life sciences company boosted its outlook for organic revenue growth and adjusted profit for the full year, following third-quarter results that were better than expectations.Shopify (SHOP) slumps 16% after the e-commerce firm reported subscription revenue for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.In other corporate news, the AI bill keeps growing: Anthropic disclosed more than $895 billion of spending commitments, almost all of it computing power, as we reported yesterday, while Oracle sold $10 billion of bonds and about $9.9 billion of stock in a single day (blowing through its four-year "hard cap"), Alphabet placed €6 billion in the euro market and Meta is eyeing at least $20 billion from a potential multi-currency bond offering. Walt Disney is moving toward thousands of job cuts, with some managers asked to target 20% in annual cost savings (the unhappiest place on Wall Street). CVR Energy agreed to buy two refineries and a marketing platform from Marathon Petroleum for about $4.2 billion, backed by $2.5 billion of committed secured debt financing, while Apollo said new lending hit a record in the third quarter even as adjusted earnings missed, and ADM and Pfizer boosted their 2026 outlooks. Meta is wrapping up investor meetings today for its dollar and euro bond sale, after Monday's $27.9 billion investment-grade haul. Brookfield and QIA will invest £2.5 billion in a Drax data center, and Bridgepoint shareholders are selling about 25 million shares in an accelerated bookbuild. Other earnings before the open include Eaton, Marathon Petroleum, Ferrari, Energy Transfer, Sysco, Keurig Dr Pepper, Fiserv and Yum! Brands; AMD, Super Micro, Arista, Amgen and Booking report after the close.Global stocks are trading with little conviction ahead of the looming midterm election results, as Bloomberg's Macro Squawk put it, and in Europe price action is a mirror image of Monday, with cyclicals lagging defensives alongside higher oil prices. Monday's tape was the same story with a new oil price: the drop in crude supported tech for about half a session before the rebound faded, the Philly semiconductor index fell 3.4% on top of Friday's 7.2% slump and sits below its 200-day average for the first time since June 2025, while the rest of the market carried on without it (recapped here). The S&P closed at 7,541, below its 100-day support, and Bloomberg notes the midterm count will decide whether the 200-day mark about 3% lower becomes the next line of defense.The bill that is stoking the doubts got even bigger on Monday, with Anthropic's $895 billion of commitments and Oracle's $20 billion debt and equity raise. Pimco's Emmanuel Roman put the AI financing need at about $2 trillion a year and said that it's "going to be too much." None of that stopped the year's biggest deal: Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum at an enterprise value of $115 billion in stock, and the market sold both sides, with Lumentum down 19% and Marvell 13%.“This is more of an extension of sell-off,” said Anna Wu, an investment strategist and founder of Floodlines Research. “With US midterms today and the Iran risk after them, investors are cutting tech exposure first.”“There is a high risk that the Democrats will tighten regulation of the artificial intelligence sector,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “This will provide yet another argument in favor of a selloff in tech shares and will deal a blow to American exceptionalism and the US dollar.”Which brings us to the main event: votes for the entire House, a third of the Senate and 36 governors. Prediction markets are near-unanimous: Kalshi has the Democrats at 94% to take the House, 75% to take the Senate and 74% for a sweep of both chambers, with a Dem House and GOP Senate at just 20%.The historical playbook is friendly: DB's Jim Reid notes that the S&P 500 has been higher one year after the midterms for all 20 midterm votes since WWII, and that the outcome may not be known by morning (the AP called the House only 8 days after the 2024 vote). The near-term playbook is less so, which is why the likeliest outcome is also the worst for stocks (see also the 3 midterm outcomes and how they'd move stocks). Citi says a blue sweep looks priced and the outliers matter, while Goldman's Dioni Ellinikaki writes that "a Democratic House looks largely priced, with the Senate representing the main source of election related surprise," adding that "fears of a nationwide data-centre crackdown are overdone."JPM's Market Intel desk under Andrew Tyler says many client conversations are focused on the Texas governor race, where incumbent Abbott is favored but Hinojosa remains in striking distance, "with many thinking a Dem victory is Tech / AI negative given the ties to data centers." JPM's Ilan Benhamou calls Texas "the most critical to AI and thus to markets," and notes the options market prices an SPX move of about 0.9% for Wednesday, the same as payrolls day, versus about 0.7% for a normal day, so "the vote is treated as a non-event which makes the event VERY INTERESTING." JPM's scenario map gives a blue wave a 66% probability (SPX "down 25bp to gains 50bp"), a split Congress 26% (SPX gains of 0.5% to 1%) and a red wave 7%. Tyler is sticking with his Tactically Bullish call and expects a tech rebound, arguing that the biggest non-AI risk is a Middle East re-escalation but that "oil markets appear to have already priced this outcome."Goldman's Rich Privorotsky is less sanguine on that last point: "I'm a little nervy that the market got ahead of itself on oil... there's a risk of re-escalation after the midterms." On tech, he writes that it "feels like the rolling ball of de-grossing hasn't stopped," after Gen AI baskets fell 5%, optical 7.5%, neoclouds 6% and high momentum 7% on Monday, while homebuilders rose 4%. He also notes that the SOX trades at about 12.16x blended 24-month forward P/E, "approaching 2022 levels," and Nvidia at 10x, "its lowest multiple since 2013." On Apple, he says "AI demand is supporting memory pricing, but also competing for components and squeezing margins elsewhere." Goldman's US sales trader Ariana Contessa says semi sell tickets were "met with virtually zero demand/defense", with asset managers moderate net sellers of tech and hedge funds moderate net buyers (short covering) in a quiet session, with desk activity at 3 out of 10.Goldman's Amanda Lynam adds that hyperscalers have issued $271 billion of debt year-to-date, already above GS's full-year forecast of $250 billion, with more than $40 billion announced since October 29, and that "evidence of monetization by 2028 is key to mitigating downward pressure on debt ratings in the AI ecosystem." And as Bloomberg's Simon White warns in his MacroScope column, with margin debt at about $1.5 trillion and hedge funds owing nearly $4 trillion to prime brokers, tightening liquidity leaves markets increasingly prone to funding squeezes and margin calls.Oil is the part of the tape Europe can use: Brent tumbled 7.6% on Monday to $104.77 after Iran's president said he had been given more authority to negotiate and Trump hinted at progress, and European gas fell almost 9%. That rally reversed partially overnight after the WSJ reported the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island in "the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks", and a senior Iranian official told Reuters a deal remains out of reach.In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.4% at 647.16, with 386 members down and 203 up, as the selloff in US chipmakers spreads to Europe while healthcare shares get a boost from Bayer and Philips earnings. The FTSE 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 are both down 0.5% and the DAX drops 0.6%, with Germany and Spain the biggest laggards. Defensive sectors lead, with health care on top, while basic resources, tech and media lag. JPM's desk says value and momentum are leading while volatility and cyclicals lag, with renewables, diesel and defensive baskets outperforming and AI and software plays lagging. Here are the biggest European movers:Bayer shares are up as much as 6.4% after the German company topped third-quarter sales and earnings estimates and boosted its full-year adjusted Ebitda forecast.Philips shares gain as much as 7.1% before trimming the move after the Dutch medical-device maker reported third-quarter results, with analysts highlighting strong order growth and a better-than-expected margin performance.International Workplace shares rise as much as 10% after the Swiss workspace solutions company reported third-quarter revenue that came in ahead of estimates.AcadeMedia shares rise as much as 7.6% after SEB upgrades the Swedish educational services firm to buy from hold, noting low valuation and a strong shareholder yield.Coloplast shares drop as much as 7.2% after the Danish medical-products maker reported a fourth-quarter miss on adjusted Ebit and lowered both its full-year 2026/2027 guidance and mid-term outlook.Adidas drops as much as 3.2% after UBS downgrades to sell from neutral, giving the sportswear maker its only negative analyst rating, citing a “materially more challenging underlying environment.”Alstom falls as much as 10%, extending declines after the French train maker was downgraded at JPMorgan and Oddo following Monday’s profit warning.TeamViewer shares plummet as much as 26% after the German software company cut its full-year revenue forecast, citing delayed conversion of large enterprise deals and economic uncertainties in Europe.AB Foods falls as much as 4.2% after the company warned FY27 adjusted operating profit is likely to be lower than 2026, mainly due to its sugar segment, and didn’t announce a share buyback.Asian stocks fell as the chip rout deepened on concerns over AI spending, with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index dropping as much as 1.3% and tech-heavy markets hit hardest. South Korea's Kospi tumbled 3.8%, with SK Hynix down 5% and Samsung down 4.1%, despite softer-than-expected October CPI of 2.8%, and Taiwan's Taiex slid 3.6% to its lowest since end-July; Goldman's Asia Prime desk says Taiwan was the most net-sold market in Asia in October, with hedge fund net allocation down to 5.9% from 7.5% in early October. Japan was closed for Culture Day. Indonesia's JCI also dropped 3.8%, with the rupiah at 18,139 and the 10Y yield at 7.80%, a more than six-year high. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 rose 0.3% after the RBA hiked as expected, India's Nifty gained 1.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.3% for a third straight gain as the Hang Seng Tech index rose on buying of non-AI names. In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.2% and the STAR50 slumped 3.8%, as Beijing's latest market-support measures, including liquidity steps, cheaper buyback loans and eased leverage curbs, failed to impress, though stocks bounced into the close on chatter that regulators would slow IPOs; the FT later reported the CSRC told banks to pause IPOs and large share sales (Beijing's stock rescue turns more desperate). “Beijing’s latest support offers a glimmer of light amid the gloom surrounding Chinese equities, but it’s premature to expect policy relief to translate into a vote of confidence in a fundamental turnaround,” said Hebe Chen, market analyst at Vantage Global Prime.In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the DXY is essentially flat in a thin 101.62 to 101.87 range as Americans vote. Newsquawk notes a Democratic sweep would "undoubtedly be USD-negative in the short term", while a Dem House and GOP Senate may be more favorable for the dollar. The Aussie is the G10 laggard, down about 0.3% within a 0.6962 to 0.7003 range, after the RBA raised rates 25bps to 4.85%, an 18-year high, but three of nine board members dissented and Governor Bullock declined to provide guidance. The Swiss franc pared early gains after Swiss CPI accelerated to 1.5% in October, the highest in almost three years, versus 1.3% expected. EUR/USD is little changed near 1.1195, cable at 1.3417 and USD/JPY at 157.94. The onshore yuan ended its longest winning streak in three decades after the PBOC raised the FX reserve requirement ratio by 2 points to 6% from November 15; Goldman's Sun Lu sees 6.68 to 6.69 in USD/CNH as a good fade zone, while GS's Skyler Qian calls the hike "more symbolic than its actual impact on USD liquidity."In rates, Treasuries are broadly flat and outperform their European peers, with the 10Y yield up about 1.5bps at 4.93% as of 7:30am after falling to its lowest level since early September on Monday as oil plunged. USTs trade a handful of ticks lower within 106-21 to 106-27. Monday's quarterly refunding announcement trimmed the Q4 borrowing target by $10 billion to $618 billion but put Q1 needs at $800 billion, at the high end of expectations and a reminder of the United States' elevated fiscal needs, as DB's Reid put it. European bonds slip, pausing Monday's rally, as oil and Dutch TTF rebound and ECB speakers sound hawkish: Radev said the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over, and Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy. Bunds are down about 20 ticks and gilts underperform, down 35 ticks around the 86.00 handle; Germany's 5-year Bobl sale drew just €3.839 billion against a €5 billion target. Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez-Liechti warns investors not to buy the narrative that a divided US government would curtail spending after the midterms, while Australian short-end bonds rallied as the split RBA vote dimmed the chance of another hike.“Attention should be paid to the possibility that President Trump, entering the latter half of his term, increasingly turns towards foreign and trade policy, where he faces fewer congressional constraints, as he seeks to build his legacy,” said MUFG strategist Masayuki Nakajima.In commodities, WTI December futures trade toward the middle of a $96.12 to $98.69 range, and Brent January is in a $104.27 to $107.24 range, closer to the upper end, as crude trims part of Monday's 8% slump on the Qeshm strike headlines and Iranian comments that a deal remains far off. Dutch TTF has rebounded to around €97.50/MWh from about €94 earlier, and Goldman raised its 2027 TTF forecast to €51/MWh. Saudi Aramco posted a 9% increase in third-quarter profit and said it will maximize production this quarter after exports returned to near prewar levels in October, while Middle East oil market metrics indicate near-term supply is outpacing demand for the first time since July. Iran's IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines, and a refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack. Spot gold trades in a $3,895 to $3,964 range, almost wiping out Monday's gains, spot silver dipped below Monday's $49.33 low, and LME copper is under $14,000 in a $13,896 to $14,286 range.US economic data slate includes September JOLTS job openings, factory orders and final durable goods orders (all at 10am). There are no scheduled Fed speakers; BoC's Macklem and Rogers speak to lawmakers at 11am, and the Treasury sells $100 billion of 6-week bills at 11:30am. Polls start closing at 6pm ET. Earnings from AMD, Super Micro, Arista, Amgen and Booking are due after the close.Market SnapshotTop Overnight NewsThe U.S. attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal. WSJU.S. Vice President JD Vance on Monday said he was optimistic about reaching a “negotiated settlement” with Iran. An Iranian official says the two countries remain far from reaching a deal as Tehran threatens retaliatory strikes in the region and beyond. CNBCIran and the US are reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war; Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive. BBGIran's IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off. IRIBSaudi Aramco will maximize oil production this quarter, the company’s chief said, as it looks to keep cranking up shipments after exports returned to near prewar levels in October. BBGAmerica’s referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term is underway, with polls set to open Tuesday morning for the US midterm elections and tens of millions of early ballots already cast. BBGThe Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s emergency bid to set aside about 20,000 California ballots. BBGNvidia is ordering its data center partners to reduce exposure to Chinese customers in a move that further restrains China’s ability to keep up with US rivals as the race between the world’s two AI superpowers intensifies. FTAnthropic disclosed a twelve-fold increase in quarterly revenue while revealing that it intends to spend more than $895 billion in the years ahead, as the AI lab courts investors for a potentially record-breaking IPO. BBGArtificial intelligence-related financing could grow to about $10 trillion over the next five years, eventually reaching excessive levels, said Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. BBGWalt Disney is moving toward thousands of job cuts with the company asking some managers to target 20% in annual cost savings, according to people familiar with the matter. BBGChinese regulators have told banks to hold fire on company listings and large share sales in an effort to bolster the country’s struggling stock markets. FTChina said it would increase the reserve requirement on FX deposits in a move aimed at reducing appreciation pressure on the yuan. SCMPAustralia's central bank Governor Michele Bullock signaled a wait-and-see approach to further tightening after policymakers lifted the benchmark rate to an 18-year high. The RBA board voted six-to-three in favor of raising the key rate for a fifth time this year, omitting a reference that it was willing to hike further if needed. BBGThe US has arranged trilateral peace talks with Moscow and Kyiv in Abu Dhabi next week to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, the first time the three sides will have met since February. FTThe US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery program for Ukraine, people familiar said. The request may come as soon as this month. BBGSwitzerland’s inflation rate rose to the highest level in almost three years, driven by the surge in oil costs and a weaker franc. BBGEuro-area governments have been asked to submit nominations for successors to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde by Friday. BBGCVR Energy said it has $2.5 billion of committed secured debt financing to help fund its planned $4.2 billion acquisition of Marathon refining and marketing assets. BBGHyperscalers have issued $271 billion of debt year-to-date, above Goldman's 2026 full-year forecast of $250 billion, with more than $40 billion announced since October 29; "evidence of monetization by 2028 is key to mitigating downward pressure on debt ratings in the AI ecosystem." GSA more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NewsquawkAPAC stocks traded mixed following the continued tech rout stateside, where most major indices were negative, and the Nasdaq 100 dipped into a correction, although the majority of US sectors finished in the green and oil prices slumped 8% due to hopes for diplomacy, while demand was contained overnight amid the holiday closure in Japan and cautiousness heading into the US midterm elections. ASX 200 was indecisive heading into the RBA announcement, but finished in the green after the central bank hiked rates as expected, with the decision made by a 6-3 vote, while it remained hawkish but stopped short of signalling a December hike. KOSPI underperformed following the tech rout stateside and despite the softer-than-expected CPI data, which printed 2.8% vs exp. 2.9%, but remained above the central bank's medium-term target. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed despite authorities launching a renewed effort to stabilise the stock market, including measures to boost liquidity, cut rates for share buy-back loans and ease curbs on leveraged trading.Top Asian NewsPBoC announced it will raise the forex reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts from 4% to 6% effective November 15th, while the measure is aimed at improving the management of foreign currency liquidity in financial institutions.China's CSRC has reportedly instructed investment banks to pause IPOs and large share sales through informal guidance in an effort to support the country's struggling stock markets, according to the FT citing sources.European bourses (Stoxx 600 -0.3%) begin Tuesday’s trade on the back foot, reversing the broad gains seen on Monday. Crude benchmarks have pared some of Monday’s c. 8% losses, after reports that the US hit Qeshm Island and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that a deal is still out of reach. To add to the downbeat tone were disappointing earnings from Apple and Palantir. Sectors have a negative bias. Defensive sectors lead, with Health Care topping the sector pile. The sector laggard is Basic Resources, with Tech and Media following closely behind. Key movers include: Bayer, Q3 metrics beat and raised its FY adj. EBITDA guidance; Lufthansa, trimmed its FY adj. EBIT guidance while lifting its fuel cost forecast; Philips, sales matched expectations while reiterating its FY outlook and announcing a settlement with the US DoJ regarding faulty sleep apnoea devices. US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ despite downside in Apple and Palantir pre-market. Starting with Apple, it gave a mixed report, with tightening Q1 gross margin guidance (45-46%, exp. 47%) overshadowing an upbeat sales forecast (7-10%, exp. 6.1%). As a result, shares are lower pre-market by 3.7%. For Palantir (-7.9% pre-market), its outlook also disappointed, as it expects Q4 sales that point to a slower rate of growth.Top European NewsGerman Chancellor Merz said they need to ensure that the electricity tax is reduced in the 2027 budget, and has some ideas on how to do this while calling for further reductions in air traffic tax.Germany's HDE Lobby Group sees 2026 German Retail Sales +2% in nominal terms, +1% in real terms.FXG10s are mixed against the USD. The CAD, GBP and CHF are flat, with the latter scaling back some of its earlier outperformance following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. The AUD lags following the RBA’s decision to hike rates by 25bps (as expected), though the Bank did not signal further action.DXY is essentially flat and trades within a thin 101.62 to 101.87 range. Action which comes as Americans head to polling stations for the midterms, where a Democratic sweep is likely, according to major prediction market odds. Kalshi assigns a 76% chance of a Dem Senate, and a 94% chance of a Dem House. This outcome would undoubtedly be USD-negative in the short term given the implications for passing policy, slower growth and the increased chance of a government shutdown. Perhaps a more favourable outcome for the USD would be a Dem House and a GOP Senate.CHF was initially the outperformer this morning before paring back, following a hotter-than-expected CPI report. Headline Y/Y printed at 1.5% (vs exp. 1.3%), and pertinently above the Bank’s Q4 average forecast of 1.2%; importantly the Core Y/Y metric remains unchanged at 0.5%, evidence that second round effects are yet to enter the Swiss economy. A report which keeps the headline within the SNB's 0-2% target range, but if the upturn in inflation continues, money markets will likely bring forward rate hike bets towards mid-2027.The Aussie is the clear underperformer this morning, in the aftermath of the RBA policy announcement, alongside losses in copper and gold. The Bank hiked its Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected. There were a few hawkish elements from within the release, namely the RBA sees materially higher inflation (as per its latest forecasts), and noted that risks to inflation are to the upside. On the dovish side (and driving the AUD downside), the decision was subject to dissent from three members, who opted to pause rates. Moreover, the Bank refrained from any hawkish guidance; Governor Bullock stated that she will not be offering guidance, adding that it is “probably good to wait now and see incoming data”. Overall, the RBA sounded a bit more cautious than in previous meetings, which has led AUD/USD to trade with losses of c. 0.3%, within a 0.6962 to 0.7003 range.Central BanksRBA raised its Cash Rate Target by 25bps to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6-3 vote, with three members favouring a hold at 4.60%. RBA noted that inflation remains elevated, with risks still skewed to the upside, and revised its inflation outlook materially higher in its updated staff forecasts, while it stated that inflation is now expected to remain elevated through much of 2027, with the top of the 2-3% target range not reached until late 2027. The Board reiterated its commitment to returning inflation sustainably to target and said monetary policy remains well positioned to respond to developments, while it remains focused on price stability and full employment. It also noted that rate hikes since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that output growth is expected to slow further over the coming year, easing capacity pressures and helping inflation return to the target.RBA Governor Bullock said the rate hike was needed to bring inflation down and address domestic capacity pressures, with growth needing to remain subdued and unemployment expected to rise further. Inflation is largely baked in for the next year, while the RBA is not forecasting a recession. Additionally, she said it is probably appropriate to wait for incoming data, does not know how high rates will need to go or what the next move will be, and is not providing forward guidance.ECB's Radev said the economic environment is getting more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Said core inflation is stable, and the energy shock has not passed on to wages.ECB's Moulin said the ECB must prevent inflation from spreading beyond energy.SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June.Fixed IncomeA modestly bearish session for the space. USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in 106-21 to 106-27 parameters. In short, we await the start of the US midterms (Newsquawk preview and dashboard available), while on the lookout for any further geopolitical updates after Monday’s limited kinetic action and the commentary from Iran.To recap, the US targeted Qeshm Island in a limited strike, aimed at preventing Iran from aggression within the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, sources report that while Qatari mediators were involved in recent days, the Iranian assessment is that a return to war is the most likely scenario; though political figures within Iran are reportedly pushing for a de-escalation.Amidst this, EGBs react to the energy upside, posting pressure of about 20 ticks. Pressure that is seemingly a function of the moves seen in global energy benchmarks, and specifically Dutch TTF, which is bid by c. EUR 2/MWh. No reaction to the morning’s ECB speak, which has stuck to the script.Gilts, as is often the case, underperform amidst this energy move. Lower by 35 ticks at the time of writing, but some 15 clear of the 85.85 base and holding around the 86.00 handle. UK specifics focused on the government's EU relationship, ahead of the EU-UK summit, with reports suggesting some progress has been made on various points; however, PM Burnham has clarified that he is not proposing the return of freedom of movement. A point the EU is particularly attached to.Germany sells EUR 3.839bln vs. exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.1x), average yield 3.14% (prev. 3.2%), retention 23.22% (prev. 33%).UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt: b/c 3.38x (prev. 3.31x), average yield 5.268% (prev. 4.934%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).CommoditiesWTI Dec and Brent Jan futures are attempting to trim some of yesterday’s losses, following the 8% slump on Monday, which saw WTI relinquish the USD 100/bbl level. Losses yesterday came amid hopes of diplomacy, although the partial rebound overnight was facilitated by reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran's Qeshm Island. Choppiness was seen this morning amid mixed geopolitical headlines (more below), with WTI now towards the middle of a USD 96.12-98.69/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 95.15-102.75/bbl range) and Brent in a USD 104.27-107.24/bbl parameter (vs yesterday’s USD 103.28-112.41/bbl range), but closer to the upper end. Dutch TTF has rebounded to around EUR 97.50/MWh from lows of around EUR 94/MWh this morning.In terms of geopolitics, there were overnight reports of explosions and that the US had attacked Iran's Qeshm Island, while the attack was described as small-scale, defensive and aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.This morning, the geopolitical flurry continued with early-door source reports suggesting that Iran and the US are far from reaching a deal to end the war, while the US' excessive demands will not be accepted by Iran. Further, Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iran, which some reports suggested were positive and that Iran and the US were reviewing the latest suggestions from mediators. It was then reported that Qatari mediators went to Tehran only to receive Iran's response, not for further discussions, and sources said political figures inside Iran were pushing for de-escalation. Pakistani journalist Mallick mentioned that to his understanding, an agreement to return to the negotiation table between US-Iran is in the works, but not as close as some had suggested.Precious metals are weaker as crude rebounds, with spot gold almost wiping out all of yesterday’s gains, while spot silver is now below Monday’s low, all despite a relatively flat USD ahead of the US midterms. Spot gold trades in a USD 3,895-3,964/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 3,874-3,970/oz range). Spot silver underperforms after dipping under yesterday’s USD 49.33/oz low. Analysts at ING “expect gold to regain some ground following its recent correction. But the near-term outlook remains challenging amid expectations for higher rates and a stronger dollar, limiting the scope for a more sustained recovery.”3M LME copper is also on the back foot and under the 14k mark in a current USD 13,896.05-14,286.35/t range at the time of writing.Saudi Aramco CEO expects global liquid fuel demand to rise by c. 2.4mln bpd by 2027 and warned energy markets will face pressure this winter. Said the East-West pipeline expansion is underway, China is increasing crude purchases and Aramco remains ready to rapidly increase production if needed. Added that exports resumed within days following attacks on the East-West pipeline.ADNOC Gas CEO said gas demand will continue growing in the long term and emphasised the need for more energy and diversified supply.Goldman Sachs raised 2027 TTF Average Price Projection to EUR 51/MWh from EUR 44/MWh to reflect a 45% chance of a low-winter-Mideast LNG supply scenario.Trade/TariffsChina's MOFCOM said Vice Minister Li met with a US agricultural trade delegation, with both sides exchanging views on China-US economic and trade relations and agricultural trade cooperation.UK and EU agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports.Geopolitics: Middle EastUS President Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and that could happen, while he added that Iran said even recently that they won't have a nuclear weapon.CIA Director Ratcliffe was reportedly advising US President Trump to maintain the 'no war, no deal' status quo and allow the economic pressure campaign to continue, while he said the prolonged economic pain will induce Iran to make more concessions or create enough instability in Iran that citizens revolt, according to sources cited by Axios's Ravid.US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against Iran in recent weeks as President Trump touts the possibility of a diplomatic deal, while the attacks were described as small-scale and defensive, aimed at denying Tehran the freedom to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials cited by WSJ.US source told the Jerusalem Post that the US was behind the attack on Qeshm Island and stated it was a small incident intended for self-defence, while a US official cited by Axios's Ravid stated that the IRGC fired a missile from Qeshm Island at a US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night and a US fighter jet then eliminated the surface-to-air launcher in self-defence, with the attack also described as a small incident.An agreement for Iran and the US to return to negotiations is reportedly in the works, although a deal is not as close as some suggest, according to journalist Mallick.A senior Iranian official said Iran and the US remain far from reaching a deal to end the war despite intensified mediation efforts, Reuters reported. Tehran insisted its conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, with nuclear talks only possible afterwards, and rejected Washington's "excessive demands".Iran and the US are reportedly reviewing the latest mediator proposals aimed at bridging differences and averting another war, Bloomberg reported. Qatari mediators held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, which were described as positive.Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran solely to receive Iran's response rather than hold further talks, according to Al Arabiya sources. Iran's President, Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister reportedly urged military authorities to respond positively to Qatar's proposal, although Iranian assessments suggest a return to war is now the most likely scenario.Qatar's Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran are ongoing, with both sides committed to the process. The Qatari delegation has returned to Doha following talks in Tehran, while Gulf countries remain united in seeking to avoid escalation. Said there is still hope for a deal that would pave the way for future negotiations.Iranian diplomat Gharibabadi said the exchange of messages through Qatari mediation continues and that a diplomatic agreement is possible if Tehran's demands are met. He later said that diplomatic talks and message exchanges continue through Qatari mediation, with Iran's 7-day plan as the basis and an agreement is possible if Tehran's demands are met, while warning that any official threat to use tactical nuclear weapons would undermine the NPT's legal framework.Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said they are at the highest level of defensive readiness. He added that the ball is in the US' court, after a strong and rational response was provided to the US. He went on to say that Iran's armed forces' response to any enemy miscalculation will be unpredictable and not bound by geographical limits.Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran has no hostility towards GCC member states and appreciates the positive role of Qatar and Oman. Will continue talks with Saudi Arabia and aims to establish new regional security arrangements led by regional countries without the presence of foreign militaries.Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei rejected a Qatari proposal to establish direct communication between US diplomats and the Iranian delegation that visited Doha, according to Aram News citing sources.Iranian Foreign Ministry said that they are now in a state of war following the targeting of Qeshm.Iran is said to be ready with a more devastating response to US attacks and has preserved a significant portion of missile and drone capabilities and its weapons production capacity, and is more prepared than before, according to a report cited by IRIB.IRGC Navy said three tankers caught fire and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking naval mines in the early hours while travelling through unauthorised routes with navigation and identification systems switched off, IRIB reported.Saudi Defence Minister said he discussed de-escalation efforts in the region and the Houthis' continued attacks during a call with US Secretary of Defence Hegseth.Houthi spokesperson said the Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they did not carry out any operation today towards Saudi territory.Geopolitics: UkraineUS envoy Witkoff said the US will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10th-11th and that trilateral talks will cover ending the war and post-war security agreements, as well as de-escalation and aid measures, while he also stated that US officials are to meet this week in Brussels with France, Germany, UK, EU and NATO representatives to discuss Ukraine. Russia's Kremlin later confirmed the trilateral Ukraine talks.US is planning to ask NATO allies to contribute more money to a key weapons-delivery programme for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched a large-scale, coordinated overnight attack targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure, primarily energy generation facilities and substations.Russia said it carried out a large-scale overnight attack on Ukraine's energy facilities, while it was also reported that an oil refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack.US, Chinese and Russian officials are reportedly in talks regarding a possible trilateral summit between the leaders later in November, according to the FT citing sources. The source added that it remains unclear whether the talks would happen trilaterally, or bilaterally between China-US and China-Russia, while suggesting that the US is pressuring China to agree to a meeting.CryptoBitcoin briefly dipped below Monday's USD 76.55k low to a trough of USD 76.24k, before reversing to a high of USD 77.19k.US Event Calendar10:00am: Sept. JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7164k, prior 7079k10:00am: Sept. Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior 0.1%10:00am: Sept. F Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8%10:00am: Sept. F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%10:00am: Sept. F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%10:00am: Sept. F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.2%, prior 1.2%11:30am: US to sell $100 billion of 6-week billsCentral Bank SpeakersNo Fed speakers scheduled11:00am: BoC Gov. Macklem, Senior Deputy Gov. Rogers Speak to LawmakersDB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrapWelcome to midterms day and markets go into it again caught in the crosswinds between energy and AI themes. Global assets had traded much better for most of yesterday, as hopes for a resolution in the US-Iran conflict caused oil prices to tumble. Indeed, even if we account for the contract roll, the Jan 2027 contract for Brent crude oil was still down -7.63% on the day, closing at $104.77/bbl, which sent bond yields lower on both sides of the Atlantic too. While that initially also sparked an equity rally, the S&P 500 ended up reversing a +1% gain to close -0.51% lower as the tech sentiment again turned negative, sending the Nasdaq 100 (-1.39%) into technical correction territory.After the bell, Apple then delivered a mixed set of results. While its Q3 sales slightly beat expectations ($114.5bn vs $113.5bn), the company projected a narrowing of its gross margin in the current quarter (45-46% vs 47% est.). Those margin pressures pushed Apple’s shares to a -3% decline in after-hours trading. This followed a -1.83% decline in yesterday’s regular session, which still left it as the world’s most valuable company, narrowly ahead of Nvidia.Overnight, the KOSPI is down -3.76% after the tech losses in the US while S&P 500 (-0.19%) and NASDAQ futures (-0.12%) are lower again. Stoxx futures (-0.87%) are being harder hit as they closed before the late US sell-off.Now onto the main event. Today includes votes for the entire House of Representatives (the lower chamber), a third of the Senate (the upper chamber), along with 36 state Governors. And when it comes to markets, it’s no exaggeration to suggest that midterm elections are one of the best historical buy signals for equities we have. Indeed, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after the midterms for all 20 midterm votes since WWII.Currently, the Republicans control both chambers of Congress, but the incumbent President’s party usually loses ground in midterm votes. Moreover, polling averages and prediction markets are consistently pointing to Democratic gains today. For example, Polymarket gives the Democrats a 95% chance of victory in the House as of this morning, and a 79% chance of retaking the Senate.In the House of Representatives, the Republicans only won a very narrow majority in 2024, with the chamber split 220-215 between Republicans and Democrats. So the Democrats require a net gain of just 3 seats to take control. Moreover, in 18 out of 20 midterm elections since WWII, the incumbent President’s Party has lost seats in the House. So the Democrats are very strong favourites to win a majority there. In the Senate, however, it’s a bit more difficult for them. Last time, the Republicans had a 53-47 edge, and because VP Vance has the tiebreaking vote, it means the Democrats would need to pick up 4 seats to take control. And only a third of the Senate seats are up for grabs, which limits the opportunity for pickups by the Democrats and makes the task of gaining control of the Senate more difficult. Current polls suggest this is very possible, and if you look at the RealClearPolitics average, the Democrats are currently ahead in North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Ohio, and Kansas, all of which are currently held by Republicans.It’s difficult to know exactly when we’ll know the outcome, and depending how tight any close races are, it might be some time after the election. For instance, in 2024, we knew that the Republicans had control of the Senate on election night. However, the narrow House majority meant that the Associated Press only projected a Republican victory in the House 8 days after the election. So it’s not a given we’ll know by the morning, even if we should have a good idea of the direction of travel.Whatever the results are tonight, the new Congress doesn’t actually convene until January 3. However, even if the Democrats take just one chamber, that will have major implications for Trump’s legislative agenda, as all legislation requires majority support in both chambers of Congress. Notably from a market standpoint, that includes spending packages, as well as increases in the debt ceiling. So even if the Democrats just win in the House, it will constrain Trump’s room for manoeuvre. In addition, the Senate is the chamber that votes on presidential nominees, including cabinet appointments, Supreme Court justices and Fed Governors. So if the Democrats take the Senate as well (which hasn’t happened to Trump in either of his terms), then he’ll face a further constraint on who he can appoint.However, even if the Democrats take control of both chambers, they’re still limited in what they can do. That’s because legislation still requires the President’s signature, and that can only be overridden if two-thirds of both chambers vote for it. So Trump still retains a veto power, even if Democratic majorities were to pass legislation he was opposed to.With all that to look forward to, markets have put in a mixed performance over the last 24 hours, as the tailwind from a huge decline in oil prices was offset by continued AI concerns. To be fair, there was a contract roll that makes the headline decline look even bigger. But if you simply take the new active Jan 2027 contract for consistency, Brent crude oil still fell -7.63% on the day to $104.77/bbl. In part, that was a reaction to the Axios report we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which said that Trump wanted to give diplomacy more time. But we then heard in the session that Iran’s Supreme Leader had given the government powers to hold peace talks, which added to hopes about some kind of diplomatic breakthrough. And later in the US session, we heard positive comments from Trump who downplayed prospects of renewed strikes against Iran, while Vice President Vance said he felt good about prospects of an Iran deal. Oil is back up half a percent this morning on a WSJ report of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. The story hasn't been picked up widely though and goes against much of the commentary over the last 24 hours.Indeed, that more dovish commentary yesterday led to a wave of relief across markets, as there had been fears of an escalation shortly after the midterm elections. This hope helped to drive a decent rally for European assets. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-7.3bps) and BTPs (-8.9bps) saw notable declines. This left the Franco-German 10yr spread tighter by -4.2bps on the day. European equities also saw a broad advance, taking the STOXX 600 (+0.42%) to its highest since early September, alongside gains for the DAX (+0.63%) and the CAC 40 (+0.98%).The pullback in inflation expectations also supported Treasuries, with 10yr yields (-1.6bps) falling back to 4.91%, their lowest level since early September. That said, they did give up some of their advance later in the session following the Treasury’s latest quarterly refunding announcement. It revised the Q4 borrowing target by -$10bn to $618bn and estimated Q1 borrowing needs at $800bn, with the latter figure coming at the high end of expectation and serving as a reminder of the United States’ elevated fiscal needs.Meanwhile, the rally in US equities proved short-lived as chipmaker sentiment deteriorated over the course of the session. Early on, the S&P 500 had traded +1.08% higher, supported by easing geopolitical fears as well as a strong ISM manufacturing print. This saw an unexpected increase to a three-month high of 55.5 in October (vs. 54.5 expected). However, the tech mood then soured, led by a continued slump in the Philly semiconductor index (-3.37%), which also pulled the Nasdaq 100 (-1.39%) down into technical correction territory, with a -10.36% decline from its October 6 peak. While there wasn’t an overt catalyst, emerging expectations of a blue wave in the midterms appeared to weigh on the sector, given the possibility that a Democratic win might create greater hurdles for data center buildout and a push for more AI regulation.By contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose +0.73%, as more than two thirds of the index advanced. So that continued the pattern we noted in our October performance review yesterday (see here) of tech losses masking broader equity resilience.Asian equity markets are mixed this morning as investors assess Apple’s earnings outlook and position for the upcoming US midterm elections. The KOSPI (-3.76%) is the region’s weakest performer but with the Nikkei closed for a holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.52%) is modestly higher, while the CSI 300 (-0.08%) is little changed and the Shanghai Composite (-0.71%) has edged lower after the PBOC reiterated support measures aimed at strengthening market stability through greater use of stock-market support tools.Early morning data showed that South Korea's consumer inflation eased in October, rising less than expected on an annual basis, while underlying price pressures remained firm. The consumer price index rose 2.8% from a year earlier, slowing from September's 2.9% increase and below expectations of 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-on-year, matching September's pace. The figures come ahead of the Bank of Korea's Nov. 26 policy meeting.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25bps to 4.85%, the highest level in 18 years, while warning that further tightening may be needed to combat persistent inflation. The decision was split, with three of the nine board members favouring a pause. The move marks the RBA’s fifth rate hike this year as it continues to grapple with sticky price pressures. In its latest statement, the RBA now expects trimmed mean inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% in December, up from its previous forecast of 3.3%,before easing to 3.5% by mid-2027, compared with 3.0% projected in August. Underlying inflation is now expected to return to the 2.5% midpoint of the target range by June 2028, six months later than previously anticipated. We await the conference.Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the US midterm elections. Otherwise, US data releases include the JOLTS report of job openings for September, and factory orders for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Radev, Kocher, Dolenc, Escriva, Moulin, Nagel and Sleijpen. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 08:24

Leftists Flee Trump's America In Search Of Utopia In Europe It's not really a secret that Europeans are conditioned from birth by their own establishment media to view the US as a terrible, racist and dangerous place with a faltering economy and no subsidies for citizens.  This propaganda program has been ongoing for decades and is designed to give Europeans a false sense that their socialist-leaning systems are far superior to the more free market American alternative.In reality, most of Europe is trapped in an economic tar pit and they are slowly sinking.  Mass immigration from third world countries is giving the public a taste of the many problems that come with demographic disruption.  And, the gun rights in America that Europeans often mock as "insanity" are starting to look pretty to them now that their governments are engaging in mass censorship and authoritarian arrests over online speech.  With the arrival of the FIFA World Cup and millions of tourists from across the Atlantic over the summer, suddenly common Europeans are beginning to realize that maybe they've been lied to their entire lives about the US.  Leftists living in America, however, still hate the country and everything it stands for with a passion. They dream of immigrating to Europe where they believe a Utopia awaits them; a place where opposing facts and mean words will never reach them.  A place where conservatives are suppressed and leftists are revered. And we would like to send them a message:  Dare to dream!Leaving the US is the best decision these people could possibly make.  Transgender couple say they were “terrified” living in America after fleeing to Ireland to claim asylum. “We were terrified. I was faced with threats of r***, threats of beatings and threats of death.” https://t.co/Echc6KW5fJ— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) October 30, 2026France 24 has released a series of reports on the changing political tides in the US, focusing on American citizens leaving for Europe in terror of what might happen to them under the Trump regime.  Their fears are rather vague and they can't seem to present many specific examples of "fascist" crimes committed by Trump or conservatives.  What they can do, though, is blow normal policy decisions out of proportion and dramatize these changes as if they are horrific violations of human rights.  Keep in mind, France is currently in the midst of violent riots led by communists and third world immigrants, and the UK is trying to silence dissent from anyone speaking out against government policies.  In these countries, only certain people from specially privileged groups get to speak their minds; for everyone else, there's always a chance that on any given day they will be arrested for what they think.There are three trespasses consistently held up by American leftists as their reasons for wanting to leave for "brighter shores":  Immigration controls, restrictions on transgender treatments and ideology, and changes to abortion laws.The west is currently under siege by third world immigration, facilitated by liberal political leaders under the guise of "multiculutralism".  Throughout the rest of the world, though, most nations have strict rules on who they allow to cross their borders.  Why is it that the US and Europe are the only places constantly criticized by leftists for wanting the same limits?  We all know the real reason why (their goal is to burn the west down).  What about transgender treatments and gender fluid ideology?  When leftists complain about this issue they are really complaining about the banning of gender treatments for kids.  The UK also restricts such treatments and has closed down their only dedicated gender facility for children.  Even the UK has some common sense.As for neo-pronouns and gender fluid ideology, US free speech laws prevent such nonsense from being forced on the public.  Furthermore, there is no concrete science whatsoever to support gender fluidity as a reality.  The only practical science on this issue shows that a tiny number of people have a mental illness (gender dysphoria) which needs to be addressed and treated.  If we make these people a protected class, then why not every other mental case?  When a schizophrenic declares himself to be king of the world, is everyone required to pretend that his delusions are real?  If the answer is no, then why should anyone be expected to support the delusions of trans people?  And then comes the abortion debate, which has been twisted into an argument over "women's rights."  When Roe V. Wade was decided in 1973, the assertion was that abortion would be "safe, legal, and rare."  The rare part was quickly forgotten.  The case ignored the rights of states to address the problem on their own terms, and, it also ignored the rights of unborn children.  For some reason, the left has become obsessed with killing babies.  So obsessed that they base their entire political identities around this one topic.  Without the ability to kill babies, feminists argue that they are now slaves. What they really mean is, they think they should never be forced to suffer consequences for their actions. The western world has had enough of this kind of female entitlement.       Europe appeals to leftists because two tier systems are an absolute reality there.  This is the exact kind of world that progressives want to live in.  More power to them.  It's about time that progressives stop trying to force their unpopular cult-like beliefs on Americans and find another place where their ideals are shared.  They whine constantly about the US being a fascist, racist, backwards society, so why stay?  When they actually put their money where their mouth is they should be applauded.  America needs more of this.  Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 07:20

Child Dies In New York's First Measles Death In 30 Years; Hochul Blames Washington A child in Lewis County has died in the state's ongoing measles outbreak, New York health officials said Monday, the first measles-associated death in New York in more than 30 years.The state Department of Health and Lewis County Public Health announced the death in a joint statement that gave no details about the child, including age or vaccination status, and asked that the family's privacy be respected."We are deeply saddened by the death of a child in Lewis County associated with the ongoing measles outbreak," the agencies said. "Measles is a highly contagious disease that can cause serious complications and death. Vaccination is the best protection against measles."Gov. Kathy Hochul used her own statement - posted the day before the midterm elections - to take a shot at the federal government. "This is New York's first measles-related death in 30 years, a devastating reminder of what's at stake when Washington deliberately erodes decades of progress in protecting Americans from preventable illnesses," she said.I'm heartbroken to learn that a child in Lewis County has died from measles. My heart goes out to their family and everyone who knew and loved them.This is New York's first measles-related death in 30 years, a devastating reminder of what's at stake when Washington deliberately...— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) November 2, 2026Lewis County is a rural county in northern New York. Statewide, New York has recorded 178 measles cases this year as of Oct. 24 - 170 of them outside New York City and eight in the city - according to the state health department. Lewis County had reported 15 cases as of Oct. 14, all in people who had not received the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, according to the state and county health departments.The death comes four weeks after Hochul declared a statewide disaster emergency over the outbreak, which widened the pool of people allowed to give measles shots. The state now recommends an early MMR dose for infants 6 months and older who live in a community with measles transmission or are traveling.The Department of Health and Human Services, led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said the CDC sent epidemiologists to New York at the state's request. "Secretary Kennedy and CDC Director Dr. Erica Schwartz continue to make clear that the MMR vaccine is the most effective way to prevent measles," an HHS spokesperson said in a statement.An HHS official told the Washington Examiner that the CDC has given roughly $100 million nationwide for measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases, including $2.36 million to New York State and $2.07 million to New York City.New York's case is the latest death in the country's worst measles year in a generation. The CDC counts more than 4,800 cases nationwide this year, the most since 1991, according to its tracker, as we reported.Neighboring Pennsylvania is the epicenter, with 1,433 cases, 269 hospitalizations and six deaths, according to its health department. The CDC's own tally has lagged the state's death count, after Kennedy suggested in August that Pennsylvania officials may have fabricated measles deaths - setting off a public clash with Gov. Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania has since warned pregnant women about the risks of infection, as we noted last month.The US could lose the measles elimination status it has held since 2000 when the Pan American Health Organization's measles elimination commission meets next week. Tyler Durden Tue, 11/03/2026 - 07:10